Week 38 EPL – Final week

Not exactly ideal timing for a prediction blog, two weeks off the end of the season. It does however give me some planning time for next season.

With most of the league places settled and Chelsea crowned as Champions, it only really leaves the 4th place Champions league spot left to play for. As someone who has supported Liverpool for the last 37 years, I am hoping Liverpool can finish the job against Boro’. Below are my predictions for Week 38. (updated with final results)

 

looking at the predictions model, most games are poor value in terms of the odds being offered vs what the model has calculated to be fair odds. Swansea is the pick of best value bets, the model has calculated 1.88 as fair odds for the home win, Betfair currently offering 2.30.

For an outside bet, Watford are currently 18.5 vs a calculated fair odds of 2.66. Score last season was 1-2 to Man City, and the reverse fixture was 1-0 to Man City. odds of 18.5 is far too high for the Home team. Could be worth taking the 18.5 and then Laying if Watford score first, or can hold Man City till late in the first half?

My favourite bet at the moment is first half +0.5 or +1.5. Below I have added my Half Time Goal Matrix. Along the bottom and on the right hand edge is the total number of games where no goals have been scored. Left to Right are Home teams, Top to bottom are the away teams. I always look for games where the odds are above 1.5 for +0.5 and closer to 2.0 for +1.5. The half time grid is also good for assessing teams to outright win the first half and Both Team to Score Markets (BTTS)

For those of you who haven’t used the +0.5, +1.5, +2.5 market, you are backing (or Laying) that 1, 2, 3 goals respectively will be scored in the first half of a match. Great thing about this market is that it doesn’t matter who scores. +0.5 is basically, someone will score in the first half. There is an identical market for the 90mins, but normally, the +0.5 is usually very low odds in this market. This brings me back to my theory of where do you want to be in a bet?, staking £10 to win £1 or, £1 to win £10 at least with the latter you have 10 tries to lose the same amount.

 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *